Analysis of Census Data Shows Low-to-Moderate Growth Neighborhoods, Including Those with Landmark and Zoning Protections, Become More Hispanic and Black, Less White

A new first-of-its-kind study released by Village Preservation analyzing census data for NYC neighborhoods between 2010 and 2020 found that neighborhoods with high levels of new housing construction — many due to upzonings of the kind that Mayor Adams’ City of Yes would seek to apply citywide — overwhelmingly saw a rise in the White share of their population, and drops in the Black and Hispanic shares.

By contrast, the study found neighborhoods with the lower-to-moderate levels of new housing development that City of Yes would seek to increase saw the White share of their population decrease and the Hispanic share increase, while the Black share either increased or decreased more slowly than it did in the high-growth areas or citywide. Many of these neighborhoods have landmark or zoning protections that moderate and carefully control the scale and extent of new development. The study also found that while the Asian population grew throughout the city, its share of the population grew more rapidly in the low-to-moderate growth areas than it did in the high growth areas or citywide.

The study found these trends in all five boroughs, and in neighborhoods of varying socioeconomic and racial makeup.

Read the study here.

These findings are particularly timely in light of plans to seek to increase expensive, market-rate housing construction such as City of Yes and other recent policy changes such as lifting the limit on the maximum size of residential development in NYC. Proponents of these changes claim they are needed to make our city more accessible, equitable, and affordable, while claiming that neighborhoods without copious amounts of new housing construction, and with landmark and contextual zoning protections, make them less so. This new study, along with other studies and analyses Village Preservation has produced, provide strong evidence that the exact opposite may be true. 

The City Council will be voting next week on Mayor Adams ‘City of Yes’ upzoning plan. City Council leaders have announced that they plan to add provisions to the plan to assist with affordable housing creation. But so far they have given no indication that they intend to remove any of the harmful provisions that accelerate the rate or scale of expensive housing construction in neighborhoods.

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